Perth climate- less rain, warmer, more fires
-posted June 2022
Western Australia government websites state that; "Western Australia's climate has changed over the last century, particularly over the last 50 years. Average temperature has risen about 1°C. Rainfall has increased over the north and interior, declined along the west coast, and declined by about 20% over the lower south-west" (main agriculture region). "Fire risk has increased across the state. The decline in rainfall over the south-west is consistent with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and cannot be explained solely by natural climate variability or changed land use, such as land clearing." (https://www.agric.wa.gov.au/climate-change/climate-trends-western-australia).
I have graphed rainfall vs cumulative land clearing and there appears to be some correlation between land clearing (16,000,000 hectares) and decreased rainfall (30-40% fall) since 1920.
Assuming 156 trees per hectare (WWF) and no regrowth, Western Australia would have to replant 2.5 billion trees to replace 16,000,000 ha of cleared land- this may help reverse the reduction in rainfall and have the added benefit of; increased native wildlife, CO2 capture, increased tourism, etc. NB. 16 million hectares is same area as Florida or Georgia or larger than Greece.
WA Prescribed Burning (Fires)- damages environment & affects your health
-posted June 2022
Prescribed burning may be an ineffective bushfire measure wasting $50-100m pa of taxpayer’s money, and has unintended consequences which are not measured nor even considered;
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Increases frequency and intensity of fires
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Prevents rain cloud formation and reduces rainfall
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Creates widespread health issues in the population (there is no safe level of air pollution)
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Smoke is giving kids asthma and reducing their life expectancy (cardiovascular disease later in life)
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Air pollution is linked to arthritis, asthma, cancer, diabetes, hayfever allergies, heart attack & stroke, hypertension, kidney disease, mental illness & osteoporosis
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Every hectare of forest burned releases about 100 tonnes of CO2-e
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Burning plants affects fauna, which in turn reduces species diversity
Prescribed burning exposes the population to weeks & weeks of air pollution every year, whereas a bushfire may only release smoke every few years over a 1-2 week period. Perth is risking the health of up to 2 million people, adding to the health burden of an over-stretched hospital system to protect an unspecified number of homes built in high risk areas. It is ironic that the environmentalists that plan and carry out these prescribed burns are actually responsible for lower fauna & flora diversity and create a drier environment for more fires.
Each year 1% of Western Australia (2,500,000 ha) is burnt by bushfires, a further 1.2% (3,300,000 ha) of lands is primarily burnt via prescribed burning by the state government. Each spring and autumn prescribed burnings are carried out (including 20% of the SW forest and 40% of the Kimberleys) with the aim to reduce the size and intensity of bushfires. However, a recent study suggests that bushfires were x3 times less likely in long unburnt forest than in recently prescription-burnt areas as forests had “self-thinned” (Philip J Zylstra et al 2022 Environ. Res. Lett. 17 044022). This seemingly valid study is contentious, experiencing the usual resistance that arises from competing scientific theories (reputations, scientific publications, job security, funding from government) it would be beneficial for this theory to be tested further.
Sources;
In pursuing this prescribed burning strategy a great many trade-offs have been made, but seemingly not measured nor even considered. Have all the risk factors been adequately considered?
Air Quality- Smoke contains many contaminants, including toxic gases (carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, and nitrogen oxides), large particles irritate the eyes, nose, throat and lungs, while finer particles can penetrate deep into the lungs and are more harmful. Safety warnings target people with heart or lung disease, older adults, children, and people of lower socioeconomic status as being the groups most at risk. In other words, any elevation of smoke pollution is a high risk for the population. Many studies show that air pollution may in fact not only exacerbate but may be the cause of these medical conditions.
WHO reports that 8 million people die prematurely each year from Household & Ambient air pollution- deaths include: pneumonia, stroke, ischaemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory disease, and cancers. WHO report reveals that when pregnant women are exposed to polluted air, they are more likely to give birth prematurely, and have small, low birth-weight children. Air pollution also impacts neurodevelopment and cognitive ability and can trigger asthma, and childhood cancer. Children who have been exposed to high levels of air pollution may be at greater risk for chronic diseases such as cardiovascular disease later in life.
Each year most WA stations record elevated smoke pollution levels, with Bunbury & Busselton often registering high levels of PM2.5 over multiple days due to their proximity to the SW forest regions. Prescribed burnings are responsible for many of these elevated pollution levels. A study in the Lancet suggests that there is no safe level of air pollution (Zhao et al, DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30262-1).
Australian Health surveys indicate that a number of health issues are increasing over time as a proportion of the total population, of which a 5year increase in median age cannot be accounted for. The likely suspects include obesity, and pollution- 62% increase in vehicles to 19 million and the increased number and intensity of fires.
Arthritis- Traffic, a surrogate of air pollution, has been associated with incident Rheumatoid Arithritis, and exposure to household air pollution is associated with an increased odds of arthritis…
https://journal-inflammation.biomedcentral.com/
https://journals.plos.org/
Asthma- Researchers have long linked asthma with exposure to air pollution. Air pollution can make asthma symptoms worse and trigger asthma attacks. Ozone may impact at risk populations even at low concentrations and that the impact is more widespread than just respiratory outcomes. Children exposed to outdoor coarse particulate matter (PM10-2.5), were more likely to develop asthma and need emergency room or hospital treatment for it. Evidence suggests air pollutants suppress genes that regulate the immune system’s ability to differentiate an allergen from a dangerous foreign substance, such as a virus or bacteria. The immune system then goes into action, setting up an inflammatory response whether the substance is harmful or not, which leads to asthma.
www.epa.gov
Cancer- the study showed that for every 10µg/m3 of increased exposure to PM2.5, the risk of dying from any cancer rose by 22 percent. Cancer mortality risk ↑42% upper digestive tract, ↑35% of the accessory digestive organs (liver, bile ducts, gall bladder, and pancreas), ↑80% breast cancer, ↑36% lung cancer.
www.aacr.org
Diabetes- Air pollution is a leading cause of insulin resistance and incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus. The association between air pollution and diabetes is stronger for traffic associated pollutants, gaseous, nitrogen dioxide, tobacco smoke and particulate matter.
Eur Rev Med Pharmacol Sci. 2015 Jan;19(1):123-8.
Hayfever- Babies are more likely to develop allergic rhinitis, a condition that includes hay fever, if they are exposed to higher levels of fine particulate matter before and after birth. Each 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with ↑30% odds of an allergic rhinitis diagnosis. Rapid rise in allergic diseases cannot be explained by genetic factors alone- air pollution, biological allergens and their interaction affect allergic diseases. Combined exposure to air and biological pollutants has a synergetic effect.
www.sciencefocus.com , DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rmed.2015.05.017
Heart Attack / Stroke- The Lancet published a seminal study which found that long-term exposure to PMs and NO2 at levels close to Air Quality Standards can prematurely age blood vessels and contribute to a more rapid buildup of calcium in the coronary artery- which restricts blood flow to the heart and other major blood vessels increasing the likelihood of cardiovascular events like heart attack and stroke.
Exposure to any level of common air pollutants (fine PM, NO2, SO2 & CO) could quickly trigger the onset of acute coronary syndrome (heart attack). It can be demonstrated with a fair degree of certainty that air pollution levels at the hour of heart attack occurrence were strongly correlated with air pollution levels during that same hour.
The Lancet- DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00145-5
Hypertension- Long-term exposure to PM2.5, PM10 and NO2 was associated with increased blood pressure and hypertension. Both short‐term and long‐term exposure to some ambient air pollutants may increase BP values among children and adolescents.
Science Direct- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2019.109109 , www.ahajournals.org - Journal of the American Heart Association. 2021;10:e017734
Kidney disease- increased risk for the development and progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and mortality. Short-term exposure (PMs and SO2) associated with a decrease in eGFR. Medium-term exposure (PM2.5 and NO2) increased number of patients with chronic kidney disease.
www.nature.com
Mental illness- according to a study of 13,000 people in London air pollution is linked to an increased severity of mental illness. A relatively small increase in exposure to NO2 led to a ↑32% risk of needing community-based treatment and ↑18% risk of being admitted to hospital. Depression and anxiety rise with small increases in air pollution, including suicides and mental disorders. Air pollution causes a “huge” reduction in intelligence and is linked to dementia. A global review in 2019 concluded that air pollution may be damaging every organ in the human body.
British Journal of Psychiatry
Osteoporosis- Emerging evidence suggests that the severity and progression of osteoporosis are directly associated with inflammation induced by air pollutants like PM. Exposure to PM10 was positively associated with incidence of osteoporosis. It is now clear that genetic factors account for a modest proportion of fracture cases and bone density variance, suggesting that an environmental profile in the form of the exposome is likely the main driver of the disease.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov- doi: 10.2147/RMHP.S316429 , https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/ - DOI; https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-11866-7 , The Lancet - DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30143-2
Greenhouse gases- CO2 released- Every hectare of forest burned releases about 100 tonnes of CO2-e, and 3.9 tonnes of carbon not absorbed from the atmosphere. Bushfires and prescribed burning in Western Australia releases millions of tonnes of CO2-e each year.
Monetary Costs- In the SW of Western Australia 1 million hectares of forest regions are managed by prescribed burnings. With a budget of $50-60m per year the aim is to burn 1/5 of this vegetation each year. Would it be better to use this budget to fireproof houses and selectively clear vegetation?
Changing Climate- climate change has been blamed for the drier conditions in Western Australia. However there may be a link between the 30-40% reduction in rainfall since 1920s to land clearing and smoke. Studies published in “Geophysical Research Letters” claims that smoke could be making it harder for clouds to drop rain and alleviate drought, potentially starting a “very scary” feedback loop. Clouds were strongly influenced by smoke - clouds had 5x as many droplets, but these droplets were about 1/2 the size as in clouds not influenced by smoke. Because of their small droplet sizes, these smoky clouds are expected to reflect more light and produce less rain than clouds in clean air.
A NASA study in Africa found that less cloud cover built up throughout the day in smoky scenes than in scenes without smoke. "Fire-emitted particles crippled the atmosphere's ability to build clouds and thunderstorms, and that ultimately caused a decrease in rainfall during what's already a seasonal drought…Less clouds and rainfall dry out the land and make it easier for farmers to ignite more fires”. The added burning deepens and strengthens the effect and could lead to regional climate warming over time.
Flora & Fauna biodiversity- It is a matter of observation that if a herbivore, frugivore, epiphyte or plant parasite is dependent on a plant that can be eliminated by a particular fire regime, then it too will be eliminated. Fires also cause erosion and subsequent sedimentation of creeks and wetlands, open up areas to the impacts of weed and feral animal invasion as well as human access and vandalism. Fire affected areas showed a reduction in flora and fauna species diversity. Plants most vulnerable are those that can only regenerate from seed. If fires occur too frequently these species may not reach maturity to produce seed and will not persist. In most cases, populations will not be affected because native animals from surrounding areas will recolonise a burnt area after a fire. When the distribution of a species is limited, or the species is listed as vulnerable or endangered, a significant fire event can impact these populations.
ARSON- 40-57% of the bushfires in Western Australia each year are from arson. Although arson offences are considered a serious crime with heavy penalties the arson rates are consistent, year in and year out.
A study of Australian arsonists over a 25 year period (https://doi.org/10.1080/13218719.2018.1556131) found that the proportion of Australian arsonists identified as having a mental health diagnosis has increased over the period 1990 to 2015; use of illegal substances in the commission of arson offences has increased, demonstrate a versatile range of offending behaviours; and arsonists with an expressive motivation are more likely to have a history of substance use and mental illness.
Air pollution is linked to an increased severity of mental illness. There may be a feedback loop of bushfires and prescribed burning increasing mental illness which influences more acts of arson. The air pollution in turn creates more arsonists, etc.
Profitable Oil & Gas Industries collect $48 Trillion
-posted April 2023
Oil & Gas industries in the 1970s invested in renewable energy research and development, helping to orchestrate many of the major technological developments which led to the fall in the cost of PV cells over time. However, by the 1980-90s they had sold out of their renewable interests as; the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980 brought the Carter solar program to an abrupt end; US government policies were rarely consistent for any length of time, and world price of oil fell to $10 per barrel by 1986 (Harvard Business School, 12-105 (May 2012)).
However, what has since become apparent is that the oil & gas companies became aware of the long term implications of burning hydrocarbons and chose to double down on production and attack the climate science, in order to protect their profits.
Exxon Mobil- “What we found is that between 1977 and 2003, excellent scientists within Exxon modelled and predicted global warming with, frankly, shocking skill and accuracy only for the company to then spend the next couple of decades denying that very climate science...publicly attacked climate science and scientists.” (Harvard Gazette, Jan 2023)
Shell- in 1988, an internal report by Shell projected similar effects but also found that CO2 could double even earlier, by 2030. A 1991 Shell film ‘Climate of Concern’ issued a stark warning of the catastrophic risks of climate change.
It appears Exxon Mobil attacked climate science to maximise its profits. Shell’s pragmatic approach to educate the public and advocate improved energy efficiencies may be due to 1/3 of the Netherlands being situated below sea level and will bear the brunt of future climate change. However, since the 1990s it appears that Shell has lobbied against climate action- against Obama’s Clean Power Plan and European renewable energy targets.
'Big Oil' lobby groups’ strategy in deceiving the public paid off for the oil industry as from 1977 to 2020 $48 trillion in Oil Rents were collected. Oil rents are the difference between the value of crude oil production at regional prices and total costs of production.
As this information comes to light it is disturbing to know that governments around the world continue to subsidise the highly profitable Oil & Gas industry.
International Energy Agency (IEA) calculate annual global fossil fuel subsidies of up to $750 billion annually. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculated subsidies as $5.9 trillion or 6.8% of GDP in 2020 (7.4% of GDP in 2025). Explicit subsidies accounted for 8%, the remaining 92% were implicit subsidies, which took the form of tax breaks or, to a much larger degree, health and environmental damages that were not priced into the cost of fossil fuels, according to the analysis.
*The Australian Institute has calculated Australia government subsidies to the tune of $11,636,000 over the 2021-2022 period.